General Information

RAND Study Analyzes Impact of Eliminating Individual Mandate

The RAND Corporation has developed a model to simulate the impact of the Affordable Care Act without the individual mandate. The attached analysis shows that 12.5 million people who would have otherwise signed up for coverage will continue to be uninsured. The report also predicts that premium prices for people who buy policies through a health benefit exchange will increase by 2.4 percent. The study also finds that total government spending will increase, caused by higher premiums, loss of revenue from mandate penalties and increased spending on care for the uninsured. Several studies, including one conducted by the Congressional Budget Office, have modeled the effects of eliminating the individual mandate on coverage and premium prices. RAND’s analysis uses different assumptions than those used in the other studies. The RAND model accounts for the difference in the age composition of plan enrollees with and without the mandate, which RAND believes produces a more realistic estimate of the change in premiums than any individual could expect in the absence of the individual mandate. Contact: Anne McLeod, (916) 552-7536,