CHA News Article

UCSF Releases Forecasts of the Registered Nurse Workforce in California

A report developed by the University of California, San Francisco and released earlier this year finds that supply and demand for registered nurses will be well balanced over the next 10 years, if current enrollment and state-to-state migration patterns remain stable. The forecasts of RN supply consider the aging of the RN workforce, new graduates (including those from out-of-state and international nursing programs), interstate flows of RNs and changes in license status. 

Using data from the 2016 California Board of Registered Nursing Survey of Registered Nurses, license records, and other state and national data sources, the forecasts project high and low supply scenarios. The demand forecasts are based on national numbers of RNs per 100,000 population. An alternate forecast of demand was developed that estimates future hospital utilization in California and current data on RN employment in hospitals. The report compares the forecasts with other published forecasts, including those from the U.S. Bureau of Health Workforce and California Employment Development Department. Together, the demand estimates provide a range of possible scenarios for the future.